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STUDIES OF WAR OBSERVE THAT THE PROCESSES LEADING TO CONFLICT ARE NOT NECESSARILY THOSE THAT LEAD TO WAR. WAR, WHICH IS IRREGULARLY DISTRIBUTED IN TIME & SPACE CANNOT BE EXPLAINED ON THE BASIS OF RELATIVELY INVARIANT PHENOMENA. BIPOLARITY MAY HAVE DIFFERENT EFFECTS ON DIFFERENT SOCIAL ENTITIES. IMPORTANT VARIABLES DISCUSSED ARE EQUAL CAPABILITIES AMONG CONTENDING NATIONS, AS WELL AS STRENGTH.

I / Laying the Groundwork -- United States Preparation -- Dumbarton Oaks -- San Francisco -- The Executive Committee -- The Preparatory Commission and Advisory Group -- Completing the Transition -- II / Authorization of Programs: The Policy Organs -- The Fiscal Year -- Authorizations and their Regulation -- III / Formulation of Estimates: The Secretariat -- Organization for Fiscal Management -- The Form of Budget Presentation -- The Formulation Process -- IV / Examination of Estimates: The Advisory Committee -- Creation of the Committee -- Problems in the Committee's Development -- The Advisory Committee and the Budget Process -- V / Approval and Appropriation: The Fifth Committee -- The Competence of the Fifth Committee -- General Budgetary Debate -- First Reading in the Fifth Committee -- Supplementary Estimates -- Second Reading and Committee Approval -- The General Assembly and Appropriations -- VI / Balancing the Budget: Revenues -- Apportionment of Expenditures -- Currency of Contributions -- Collections and Arrears -- Other Sources of Income -- VII / Budget Execution -- The Working Capital Fund -- The Powers of the Secretary-General -- Allotments -- Obligations and Payment: The Pre-Audit -- Internal Post-Audit -- Board of Auditors: The External Audit -- Composition and Scope of the Board -- Audit Procedure -- VIII / Financing the International Organization: Conclusions.

Reexamines the generally accepted interpretation that nuclear powers are the property of the advanced industrial nations. Argues that the Western/Northern assumption is a "march of folly" to a dangerous global impasse. Comparison of "realpolitik" to constructivist approaches finds little progress in the mixed success record of nuclear proliferation policies. Examination of previous research highlights the need for incentives & an "environmental approach" to reduce the use of civilian nuclear energy for economic development. Recent claims of nuclear exclusion due to racism or geographic position are concluded to be oversimplified as the industrially advanced countries global dominance comes to a close. References. J. Harwell

Concentrating on "the how of International Relations", this article deals in its first half with three major issues in scientific methodology : 1) importance of the scientific mode in acquiring and transmitting knowledge, and also rendering it more policy-relevant; 2) methods of forecasting international events and their evaluation; 3) different routes to theory-building : induction, deduction, analogy, gaming and computer simulation. The second half of the paper substantiates this methodological survey by presenting some findings from the Correlates of War Project that has been going on at the University of Michigan for two decades. The emphasis is on the rigorous identification of the phenomenon (War) and on the presentation of data on different factors at different levels of analysis correlated with its incidence.

As dangerous as it is to predict in world politics and war, we can reduce the error rate by clear specification of our class of cases and precise delineation of the spatial-temporal domain from which we hope to draw our possible lessons from history. Further, we next need to lay out our predictions as to the context of future conflict with particular attention to military technol gy, geo-political shifts, economic developments, and changing political instit tions. On the basis of these considerations, we can expect linle change in the global frequency of both inter-state and intra-state wars as well as their sever ty, a modest return to extra-state war, and a continuing geographical trend in a southerly and easterly direction. Turning to the research future, we need to attend more carefully to epistemological and semantic clarity, multiple levels of social aggregation for both our predictor and outcome variables, and the role of contemporary policy analysis in our modeling and research design. We are clearly far from an adequate theoretical understanding of the etiology of war, and it thus belrooves us to combine our growing methodological sophistication with a continuing theoretical agnosticism.